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Estudios de economía

versão On-line ISSN 0718-5286

Estudios de Economía vol.47 no.1 Santiago jun. 2020

http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-52862020000100005 

Artículos

Potential output, output gap and high inflation in Argentina (2007-2015)

El producto potencial, la brecha del producto y la inflación en Argentina (2007-2015)

Luciano Campos1 

1Colegio Universitario de Estudios Financieros (CUNEF). España

Abstract:

I investigate the causes of the high inflation Argentina experienced from 2007 to 2015. To do so, I estimate the potential output and the output gap using the Blanchard-Quah decomposition for this country and compare it to the estima- tions I obtained for other economies in the region were inflation was kept under control. I find that there are some country specific patterns in Argentina that can explain the high inflation observed during the analyzed years. First of all, Argentinean potential output grew at a slower pace than the rest of the countries, most notably since 2011. Second, there has been in Argentina a positive and increasing output gap since 2007, which was highly correlated with the inflation rate. Last, a comparison between the actual interest rate and the one derived from an ex-post monetary policy rule reveals that monetary policy was too lose in Argentina but that has not been the case in the rest of the countries. The policy implications of these findings are straightforward: Argentina could have reduced inflation by following a monetary rule, just like the rest of the Central Banks in the region seem to have done.

Keywords: Potential output; Output gap; Inflation; Argentina; Structural VARs

Resumen:

Este trabajo investiga las causas de la alta inflación que experimentó Argentina de 2007 a 2015. En particular, se calcula el producto potencial y la brecha del producto utilizando la descomposición de Blanchard-Quah para este país y se la compara con las de otras economías de la región donde la inflación se mantuvo bajo control. Se evidencia que Argentina experimentó un estancamiento en su producto potencial, así como una brecha del producto altamente correlacionada con la tasa de inflación. Asimismo, se muestra que la política monetaria fue demasiado laxa en este país.

Palabras clave: Producto potencial; Brecha del producto; Inflación; Argentina; Vectores autorregresivos estructurales

Full text available only in PDF format.

Texto completo disponible sólo en PDF.

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Received: September 0, 2018; Accepted: October 0, 2019

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