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Estudios de economía

versión On-line ISSN 0718-5286

Estudios de Economía vol.46 no.2 Santiago dic. 2019 


Economic indicators for automobile claim frequencies

Indicadores económicos para las frecuencias de siniestralidad de automóviles

Eva Boj1 

Anna Castañer1 

M. Merce Claramunt1 

Teresa Costa1 

Oriol Roch1 

1Department of Economic, Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, University of Barcelona. Spain


This article examines the relationship between observed claim frequencies in the automobile insurance line and the evolution of selected economic magnitudes. From a variety of economic variables, we aim to identify the main factors affecting claim frequencies, while controlling for other legislative and demographic factors. Through a dynamic regression model, the analysis is conducted for three different categories of vehicles and for a variety of coverages. A comprehensive dataset from the main Spanish insurance companies is used to calibrate the model. The evidence might assist companies to improve ratemaking.

Keywords: Categories of vehicles; dynamic regression; external predictors; motor insurance; time series


Este artículo examina la relación entre las frecuencias de siniestralidad ob- servadas en la línea de seguros de automóviles y la evolución de magnitudes económicas seleccionadas. A partir de una variedad de variables económicas, nuestro objetivo es identificar los principales factores que afectan a las frecuen- cias de siniestralidad, controlando al mismo tiempo otros factores legislativos y demográficos. A través de un modelo de regresión dinámica, el análisis se realiza para tres categorías diferentes de vehículos y para distintas coberturas. Se utiliza una base de datos de las principales compañías de seguros españolas para calibrar el modelo. La evidencia podría ayudar a las empresas a mejorar su tarificación.

Palabras clave: Categorías de vehículos; regresión dinámica; predictores externos; seguros de automóviles; series temporales

Full text available only in PDF format.

Texto completo disponible sólo en PDF.

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Received: February 0, 2019; Accepted: September 0, 2019

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