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Andean geology

versión On-line ISSN 0718-7106

Resumen

LEYTON, Felipe; RUIZ, Sergio  y  SEPULVEDA, Sergio A. Re-evaluation of probabilistic seismic hazard in central Chile. AndGeo [online]. 2010, vol.37, n.2, pp.455-472. ISSN 0718-7106.

Chile is one of the most seismically active countries in the world, having witnessed several large earthquakes that produced human and material losses; seismic hazard estimation is one of the most used tools to prevent such losses. The present study reviews the state-of-the-art of the probabilistic seismic hazard, comparing 3 different approaches and adapting them to central Chile. We include a series of new findings, such as the definition of the main seismogenic sources (interplate, intermediate-depth intraplate, and crustal earthquakes), new estimations of Gutenberg-Richter laws, and the use of specific attenuation laws for each one of them. Considering this information, we compute maps showing the expected peak ground horizontal acceleration (PGA), given a certain probability and time period where is observed not only the influence of interplate earthquakes, but also the effect of intermediate-depth intraplate and crustal earthquakes. For the Santiago Metropolitan área we obtain valúes for PGA of 55% g for a return period of 475 years and 72% g for a return period of 1950 years; only 13% lower than those observed on the coast (63% g and 83% g, respectively).

Palabras clave : Probabilistic seismic hazard; Gutenberg-Richter law; Central Chile.

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