Resumo

VILCHIS-MATA, Iván; GARROCHO-RANGEL, Carlos Félix  e  DIAZ-DELGADO, Carlos. Modelo dinámico adaptativo para la toma de decisiones sostenibles en el ciclo hidrosocial urbano en México ¹. Rev. geogr. Norte Gd. [online]. 2018, n.71, pp.59-90. ISSN 0718-3402.  http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-34022018000300059.

Cities are the engines of development in the 21st century. The key factor for its survival and development is water. Therefore, it is fundamental to study the complex water-avail ability relation in cities to boost the progress and welfare of societies. The modeling and simulation of the Urban Hydrosocial Cycle for the period 2015-2030 in the Metropolitan Area of Toluca (MAT) corresponds to the structural and dynamic interrelationship of the conceptual model of water supply and demand of the water-society system immersed in the Hydrosocial Basin, under a methodological approach of dynamic adaptive modeling. The scenarios reveal unsustainable tendencies, severe impacts and consequences that require deep reflection. It is an indispensable input for making strategic decisions in the planning and design of public water management policies, to achieve a sustainable, re silient and less vulnerable water supply in the coming decades.

Palavras-chave : Urban hydrosocial cycle; hydrosocial basin; adaptive dynamic model; water management; water availability.

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