Resumo

ZUNIGA-JARA, Sergio; SJOBERG-TAPIA, Oscar  e  OPAZO-GALLARDO, Diego. Analysis of the Economic Growth Forecast from the Central Bank of Chile: 1991-2017. Inf. tecnol. [online]. 2019, vol.30, n.1, pp.133-142. ISSN 0718-0764.  http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-07642019000100133.

In this study, the predictions of the economic growth (1991-2016) with the real ex-post growth of the Chilean GDP were analyzed, based on the information of the Central Bank of Chile. This institution regularly publishes forecasts of Chile's GDP growth. Previously they did it in the Inflation Reports to the Senate, and currently in the Monetary Policy Report. The results of the precision measurements indicate that the mean errors were higher in the long-term predictions, as expected. In addition, in the short-term predictions a pessimistic average bias was observed, while in the long-term the bias was optimistic. Finally, although the predictions made in 1991-2008 were less precise, on the average, they were unbiased and efficient, unlike the predictions made in 2009-2016, which showed to have a statistically significant optimistic bias.

Palavras-chave : forecast; GDP growth; forecasts; Central Bank of Chile; unbiasedness; efficiency; accuracy.

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