SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

 
vol.30 issue1Determining Factors of Financial Well-being and its Relation to Quality of Life in a Sample of Professional Workers of Guayaquil, EcuadorBusiness Architecture and Process Simulation - A necessary merger before making significant changes in the business structure author indexsubject indexarticles search
Home Pagealphabetic serial listing  

Services on Demand

Journal

Article

Indicators

Related links

  • On index processCited by Google
  • Have no similar articlesSimilars in SciELO
  • On index processSimilars in Google

Share


Información tecnológica

On-line version ISSN 0718-0764

Abstract

ZUNIGA-JARA, Sergio; SJOBERG-TAPIA, Oscar  and  OPAZO-GALLARDO, Diego. Analysis of the Economic Growth Forecast from the Central Bank of Chile: 1991-2017. Inf. tecnol. [online]. 2019, vol.30, n.1, pp.133-142. ISSN 0718-0764.  http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-07642019000100133.

In this study, the predictions of the economic growth (1991-2016) with the real ex-post growth of the Chilean GDP were analyzed, based on the information of the Central Bank of Chile. This institution regularly publishes forecasts of Chile's GDP growth. Previously they did it in the Inflation Reports to the Senate, and currently in the Monetary Policy Report. The results of the precision measurements indicate that the mean errors were higher in the long-term predictions, as expected. In addition, in the short-term predictions a pessimistic average bias was observed, while in the long-term the bias was optimistic. Finally, although the predictions made in 1991-2008 were less precise, on the average, they were unbiased and efficient, unlike the predictions made in 2009-2016, which showed to have a statistically significant optimistic bias.

Keywords : forecast; GDP growth; forecasts; Central Bank of Chile; unbiasedness; efficiency; accuracy.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )