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Información tecnológica

versão On-line ISSN 0718-0764

Resumo

CEBALLOS, Yony F; URIBE, Maribel  e  SANCHEZ, German. System Dynamics Modeling for Pig Breeding Market Behavior Prediction. Inf. tecnol. [online]. 2013, vol.24, n.4, pp.117-124. ISSN 0718-0764.  http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-07642013000400013.

This paper presents the construction of a model based on system dynamics for describing the behavior of pig market. This with the objective of anticipating possible events, creating scenarios about assumptions and determine whether it is feasible or not to invest in this market in a short to medium term. The proposed model consists of seven cycles considering the different variables involved in the pig market, establishing relationships and the cycles formed between them. The model variables were set using historical data of the market. The results show a high dependence of raw material costs over the earnings and show the stage of breeding as the most profitable scenario.

Palavras-chave : systems thinking; porciculture; simulation; system dynamics.

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