Background

The knowledge of predictive factors in depression should help to deal with the disease.

Aim

To assess potential predictors of remission of major depressive disorders (MDD) in secondary care and to propose a predictive model.

Material and Methods

A 12 month follow-up study was conducted in a sample of 112 outpatients at three psychiatric care centers of Chile, with baseline and quarterly assessments. Demographic, psychosocial, clinical and treatment factors as potential predictors, were assessed. A clinical interview with the checklist of DSM-IV diagnostic criteria, the Hamilton Depression Scale and the List of Threatening Experiences and Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support were applied.

Results

The number of stressful events, perceived social support, baseline depression scores, melancholic features, time prior to beginning treatment at the secondary level and psychotherapeutic sessions were included in the model as predictors of remission. Sex, age, number of previous depressive episodes, psychiatric comorbidity and medical comorbidity were not significantly related with remission.

Conclusions

This model allows to predict depression score at six months with 70% of accuracy and the score at 12 months with 72% of accuracy.

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