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Latin american journal of economics
versión On-line ISSN 0719-0433
FONSECA, Felipe J y VENTOSA-SANTAULARIA, Daniel. REVENUE ELASTICITY OF THE MAIN FEDERAL TAXES IN MEXICO. Lat. Am. J. Econ. [online]. 2011, vol.48, n.1, pp.89-111. ISSN 0719-0433. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0719-04332011000100004.
An inelastic tax system increases the uncertainty associated with tax revenue collection. This results in continuous short-term adjustments to maintain the stability of tax collection. In this paper, we estimate the revenue elasticity of the principal taxes in Mexico, finding a much greater elasticity than that found in previous studies. A cointegration model between the revenue and taxes is used which satisfies strong exogeneity, providing a basis for congruent and reliable projections. Using this model, the tax revenue projected for 2011 is much lower than the estimates prepared by Mexico's federal government.
Palabras clave : Federal taxes; long-term revenue elasticity; cointegration; strong exogeneity; forecasts.