Resumen

FONSECA, Felipe J  y  VENTOSA-SANTAULARIA, Daniel. REVENUE ELASTICITY OF THE MAIN FEDERAL TAXES IN MEXICO. Lat. Am. J. Econ. [online]. 2011, vol.48, n.1, pp. 89-111. ISSN 0719-0433.

An inelastic tax system increases the uncertainty associated with tax revenue collection. This results in continuous short-term adjustments to maintain the stability of tax collection. In this paper, we estimate the revenue elasticity of the principal taxes in Mexico, finding a much greater elasticity than that found in previous studies. A cointegration model between the revenue and taxes is used which satisfies strong exogeneity, providing a basis for congruent and reliable projections. Using this model, the tax revenue projected for 2011 is much lower than the estimates prepared by Mexico's federal government.

Palabras llave : Federal taxes; long-term revenue elasticity; cointegration; strong exogeneity; forecasts.