Revista de ciencia política (Santiago)
versión On-line ISSN 0718-090X
SIAVELIS, Peter. Sistema electoral, desintegración de coaliciones y democracia en Chile: ¿El fin de la Concertación?. Rev. cienc. polít. (Santiago) [online]. 2004, vol.24, n.1, pp.58-80. ISSN 0718-090X. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2004000100003.
While there is much disagreement concerning the political effects of Chile's two-member district binominal election system, most agree that it provides strong incentives for the formation and maintenance of governing coalitions. This article takes on these assumptions, contending that the electoral system's coalition inducing tendencies are actually quite context dependent. Relying on analyses of relative levels of electoral support among parties, a "reward" insurance policy for electoral losers, and the timing and sequencing of elections, this article outlines the conditions under which the coalition-enhancing tendencies of the electoral system are at their strongest and their weakest. It finds that these variables align to provide a less than propitious environment for the maintenance of the Concertación coalition in the lead up to the 2005 elections. In theoretical terms, the article challenges direct and mechanistic connections between electoral formulae and party outcomes, arguing that we should not be surprised when subtle contextual variations cause theorized outcomes not to occur. These findings contribute to an emerging consensus that many of the theorized rules with respect to the connection between electoral and party systems developed on the bases of the US and European models are at worst tenuous, and at best, need to be applied with a good deal of care in Latin America and in other places
Palabras clave : Chile; Sistema Electoral; Coalición; Partidos Políticos; Selección de Candidatos.