Scielo RSS <![CDATA[Cuadernos de economía]]> http://www.scielo.cl/rss.php?pid=0717-682120060001&lang=es vol. 43 num. 127 lang. es <![CDATA[SciELO Logo]]> http://www.scielo.cl/img/en/fbpelogp.gif http://www.scielo.cl <![CDATA[<B>Chile's Economic Growth</B>]]> http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-68212006000100001&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=es Chile's average per capita GDP growth of 4.1% during 1991-2005 was significantly higher than average world growth during the same period and was a strong break from its own past. How much of Chile's recent growth is trend growth and how much is cyclical, influenced largely by external conditions? Which are the main determinants of Chile's long-term growth and cyclical fluctuations, according to the recent empirical literature? Which are the country's main growth strengths and weaknesses, and, based on the latter, which are the policy reforms advocated by recent technical studies and campaign proposals? This review article addresses the latter questions, starting with the facts about Chile's average growth and growth volatility at the aggregate, regional, and economic-sector level. Then the paper surveys trend growth studies for Chile that range from decomposition by sources of growth to econometric and simulation studies of deep growth determinants, based on international panel-data and national time-series evidence, and on research focused on individual reforms. Studies on short-term output fluctuations and cyclical recoveries in Chile, also comprising cross-country and national time-series evidence, are presented next. This issue of Cuadernos publishes six new, relevant research papers on Chile's growth, which are briefly introduced. Then the paper reviews selectively growth-enhancing policy proposals that have been put forward by academic authors, international organizations, and presidential candidates in their 2005 campaign programs. An epilogue with brief thoughts about Chile's growth potential and policy reform challenges closes the paper <![CDATA[<B>Complementarities between Institutions and Openness in Economic Development</B>: <B>Evidence for a Panel of Countries</B>]]> http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-68212006000100002&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=es The main goal of the paper is to evaluate the sources of growth in Chile and the world in the last three decades, but stressing the role of complementarities in economic policies. Therefore, we evaluate the growth determinants for a sample of seventy-eight countries with information over the 1970-2000 period. In contrast to Gallego and Loayza (2002), we test directly the existence of complementarities between trade and financial liberalization policies with: a) the initial conditions of the economy, b) human capital policies, and c) the quality of institutions <![CDATA[<B>Regional Convergence in Chile</B>: <B>New Tests, Old Results</B>]]> http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-68212006000100003&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=es Convergence tests implicitly test the unit root hypothesis for per capita income. Although the statistics do not have critical values under the null hypothesis most papers on this subject use them, with the corresponding problems for inference. This paper determines the existence of convergence in GDP levels and income across the regions of Chile using the traditional tests and also recent unit root tests for panel data that allow for correct inferences. We also analyze convergence in dispersion, evaluating the presence of asymmetries or the formation of regional "clubs" using nonparametric tests. Our main conclusions are: (1) the evidence supports the hypothesis of absolute b convergence in both per capita GDP and income; (2) the convergence rate is higher for income than for GDP; (3) the conditional convergence rate increases when we control for the share of mining on the regional productive structure; (4) the data do not support the existence of convergence clubs; and (5) there is no clear evidence of s convergence <![CDATA[<B>Sources of Growth and Behavior of TFP in Chile</B>]]> http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-68212006000100004&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=es Chile has exhibited sharp cyclical and trend variation in its GDP and TFP growth rates during the last half century. This paper presents new estimates of the sources of Chile's growth and new measures for factor inputs and TFP during 1960-2005. Capital series are adjusted by utilization and labor employment series by hours worked and labor quality measures. Using a Cobb-Douglas function, the paper presents eight series for TFP based on alternative combinations of input measures. Three alternative cyclical measures for GDP suggest that the full period can be divided into three sub-periods of similar length, with similar cyclical features, and that coincide closely with distinct historical eras: 1960-1973, 1974-1989, and 1990-2005. Across the latter time spans, a negative relation between the first and second moments of GDP growth is confirmed, consistent with international experience. This paper also reports econometric evidence on the behavior of Chile's TFP during 1960-2005. TFP dynamics are shaped by cyclical variables (the terms of trade and real exchange rate undervaluation) and structural policy variables (macroeconomic stabilization and microeconomic reform progress), as well as positive interaction effects between macro performance and micro policies <![CDATA[<B>Productividad Sectorial en Chile</B>: <B>1986-2001</B>]]> http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-68212006000100005&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=es The purpose of this paper is to estimate total factor productivity growth by sector of activity for the Chilean economy in 1986-2001. The main problem that we face is the lack of data on the stock of capital by sector for the whole period. We design a methodology to generate capital stock series by sector. After adjusting the generated series on the stock of capital by an utilization factor and the employment series by their relative quality, we estimate TFP by sector. Our results indicate that the sector with the largest productivity increase in this period has been commerce. Our results match evidence from other countries where it has been found that the sectors with the largest increase in productivity are those sectors that use intensively information technology <![CDATA[<B>Micro Efficiency and Aggregate Growth in Chile</B>]]> http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-68212006000100006&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=es Using plant-level data on Chilean manufacturing firms for the 1980-2001 period, we estimate and characterize disaggregate total factor productivity. We use these estimates to study the microeconomic sources of aggregate efficiency, a fundamental part of aggregate growth. By decomposing productivity dynamics into production reallocation and within plant efficiency changes, we find that reallocation accounted for almost all of total efficiency gains in Chile during the past few decades. The entry of new, more productive units explains most of these reallocation gains. Within-plant productivity growth contributes positively only during the 1990s, due perhaps to a lag between the implementation of major market oriented structural reforms -mostly undertaken during the late 1970s and early 1980s- and their complete effect on the economy. Our findings suggest that once reforms were consolidated, unbounded within-plant efficiency gains driven by technology adoption and innovation occurred <![CDATA[<B>Procyclical Productivity in Manufacturing</B>]]> http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-68212006000100007&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=es We study the cyclical behavior of labor productivity in eighty industries of the Chilean manufacturing sector in the 1979-2001 period. We find that labor productivity at the sector-level is procyclical but it is a-cyclical when using aggregate data. We provide an analytical and empirical explanation for this divergence. We also use an econometric model to quantify the determinants of productivity. The results indicate that technology shocks account for one half of productivity growth, thus supporting the supply shocks hypothesis as the main source of business cycles in Chile. The other 50% of the productivity changes is explained by reallocation of resources from less to more productive sectors as well as the presence of increasing returns. Variations in factor utilization were insignificant <![CDATA[<B>RESÚMENES EN ESPAÑOL</B>]]> http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-68212006000100008&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=es We study the cyclical behavior of labor productivity in eighty industries of the Chilean manufacturing sector in the 1979-2001 period. We find that labor productivity at the sector-level is procyclical but it is a-cyclical when using aggregate data. We provide an analytical and empirical explanation for this divergence. We also use an econometric model to quantify the determinants of productivity. The results indicate that technology shocks account for one half of productivity growth, thus supporting the supply shocks hypothesis as the main source of business cycles in Chile. The other 50% of the productivity changes is explained by reallocation of resources from less to more productive sectors as well as the presence of increasing returns. Variations in factor utilization were insignificant